Who Will Go Where For 2011?
- Published on Aug 16th, 2010 by Jack LamureThe 2010-2011 driver merry-go-round doesn't look like being too exciting, at least not on the face of it. The top four teams in the constructors' championship- Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes- will all remain unchanged next year, as will the F1 crèche known as Toro Rosso.
But that's not to say there's no fun to be had in speculating on who'll go where. After all, there's a rather appealing looking seat yet to be filled at Renault, as well as possibilities at Force India and Sauber.
So Badger's taken a look at who'll end up where for 2011. And, as well as the likely line-ups, we've also ventured our thoughts on the teams' ideal driver pairings for next year. Nothing ridiculous (no Hamilton to Lotus or Alonso to Hispania), just a realistic suggestion for what would make for a productive team. In part one we'll be looking at three outfits who have much-sought after vacancies, and Hispania, who have two seats available for rent.
Renault
Renault can rejoice in the knowledge that they've got Robert Kubica under contract for a further two years, but their second seat is currently unfilled, and incumbent Vitaly Petrov has a few rivals for it.
Both Timo Glock and Adrian Sutil have hinted that they'd be interested- and both would be a solid choice- as would Heikki Kovalainen, who's been linked with a return to his old team. But while they've all got plenty of experience and have proven themselves more than capable in F1 could any of them rival Kubica? We're not so sure- but we know of someone who could.
Kimi and Robert smiling? They must really get along © XPB/Autosport
Yep, Badger's ideal line-up would see 2007 champ Kimi Räikkönen in a Renault next year. For one we'd love to see him back in the sport- and we're not alone there. Secondly the combination of Kimi and Kubi- how'd you like the sound of that?- would be absolutely mega. They're two of the least complicated, purest F1 drivers of the last decade. There'd be no inter-team politics, no head games, just pure, flat-out racing. We can dream...
In reality it's likely that Petrov will retain his drive, so long as he continues to show the good form he first discovered in Turkey. We don't begrudge Vitaly his seat- he's worked hard this year and clearly has some talent- but we can help but feel that Räikkönen and Kubica would be an absolute dream team- except when it came to corporate days. Can we get a monosyllabic answer?
Ideal Line-Up: Kubica & Räikkönen.
Likely Line-Up: Kubica & Petrov
Williams
Nothing's confirmed yet but we don't reckon there's much to chat about here. Rubens has had a solid season, scoring some good points and regularly getting in to Q3. Added to that he's driven in what, six hundred and twelve grand prix now? His experience is valuable, he's said he wants to stay, and we reckon he'll will.
Hülkenberg struggled early on in 2010 but he's now started to look the real deal, capped by a great 6th place finish in Hungary. He showed so much potential in the junior ranks (where he won pretty much everything he entered) that dropping him after one season would make little sense. So things should remain the same at Williams and we're pretty sure that's the right way to go.
There's little to suggest Williams will make a change for 2011. © LAT/Autosport
Ideal Line-Up: Barrichello & Hülkenberg
Likely Line-Up: Barrichello & Hülkenberg
Sauber
Kamui Kobayashi has begun to shine lately, taking solid points over the last six races, so there's no reason to drop him. It'd be handy if he brought some money, but kudos to Peter Sauber for picking his drivers solely on talent.
Pedro de la Rosa finally broke his 2010 duck in Hungary, and hadn't embarrassed himself prior to that. More importantly he's got bags of experience, something Sauber have benefited from in the transition from BMW-backed big-hitters back to independents.
But Pedro will be 40 by the time next season gets underway, and rumour has it GP2 title leader Pastor Maldonado will replace him at the Siwss squad. Maldonado has wiped the floor with his GP2 rivals this year, and his sponsors, PDVSA, are keen to break in to F1. Sauber's car is currently a pretty large blank canvas for sponsors, so it's a natural fit.
Maldonado has dominated GP2 this year and an F1 drive looks inevitable. © LAT/Autosport
But Badger's choice for the seat would be Nick Heidfeld. He's still only 33 but has a full decade of grand prix racing behind him, the vast majority of which was with Sauber. His experience would compliment Kaumi's raw pace well, and unlike de la Rosa there's potential for him to stick about for a good few years yet.
But in honesty any of the three drivers mentioned would be a solid choice for the team. Peter Sauber has always been a good judge of racing talent.
Ideal Line-Up: Kobayashi & Heidfeld
Likely Line-Up: Kobayashi & Maldonado
Hispania
Assuming they don't collapse over the winter or sell up to someone with actual money (both very possible) Hispania will remain a 'seat for sale team' in 2011. A shame, as it means Sakon Yamamoto- who is a better DJ than he is a racing driver- has a solid shot at finally securing a full season F1 drive. It's not impossible that Bruno Senna or Karun Chandhok will be back for 2011, but that will be conditional on them upping their sponsorship input.
Maybe the Hispania boys should stop wasting their cash on personalised number plates and invest it in the team... © Sutton/Autosport
In an ideal world (one where they have a bit of cash) they'd hire the vastly experienced Pedro de la Rosa (as they tired to last winter) and up-and-coming Spanish GP2 racer Dani Clos. An all-Spanish line-up would make great marketing sense for this Spanish team, and with the know-how of Pedro and a hungry young charger in Clos they'd be in a good position to make progress.
As far as we know at the moment though the seats will go to whoever can pay, which makes the list very long and rather pointless delving in to. Anyone interested should send a blank cheque to Dr Collin Kolles, c/o HRT F1.
But remember: you may have to share your seat.
Ideal Line-Up: de la Rosa & Clos
Likely Line-Up: Yamamoto & A Blank Cheque
Part two- where we'll assess the future options of Force India, Lotus, Virgin and F1's 13th team- will follow soon.
Comments and Discussion
With both Maldonado and Sergio Perez being well-backed by sponsors and leading the way in GP2 this year, I would expect both to step up to F1, one with Sauber as a replacement for the ageing PdlR, and the other for Hispania or the 13th team.
I'd agree. Perez has got as good a shot at the Sauber drive as Maldonado. He'd probably be the better choice too.
I agree with Badger and Pete A. However, if Sauber go with a rookie and Kamui isn't exactly well-experienced, they could end up with some big problems with set-up and pushing the direction for development.
That said DLR hasn't exactly set the world on fire, although he's done better than the other 40-year old retrunee this year (never expected that!). Heidfeld then sounds like a much better prospect - and he'll have loads of experience with the Pirelli tyres by then too.
As for Renault, since Petrov wll bring a big fat cheque and Kimi would want one, I can't see any change there.
I just hope Karun Chandhok gets a seat. I thnk he's driven extremely well under very difficult circumstances and has been a great ambassador for himself, the sport and his country. We need more people like him.
Over and Out.
As much as i'd like to see it, i don't reckon Renault would hire Kimi. He wouldn't fit into the team's recent promises to Kubica. How can you build a team around one driver (as they said they would) when you put someone twice as fast in the other car?
On the other hand, if you go by the closest yardstick to when Kimi was last driving, Felipe's been struggling all year with the new tyres, so there's a high chance that Raikkonen will too.
From the Renault team's perspective, that's too much of a risk.
I think the bottom line is Schumacher's crap performance this year has sealed the door for any other past champions trying to come back in.
I was under the impression that Kubica wanted Heidfeld as his team-mate, being a known quantity and someone who can help with driving the team forward. Kubica may be a better qualifier, but Nick's Mr Dependable on a Sunday and can outrace just about anyone, great for the team because it means they're covered for both days of the weekend!
As for Kovalainen, i'm a little torn. Yes he does deserve a quicker car, but i think he should stick it out where he is now for another 12 months. Lotus did him a favour after a less-than-stellar second year with McLaren, so next year i think he should do Lotus a favour and stick around. Heikki's not going to harm his stock as long as he keeps driving like he is now. And come contract time next year, there might be an even better seat open.
I wouldn't mind Petrov staying in the team though, he appears to be a good bloke and he's one of those drivers who is slightly frustrating in the sense that there is something there, he just doesn't know how to turn it on on-demand. He hasn't yet done enough to keep his seat from my perspective though.
Williams? Keep Rubens, ditch Nico. I know it's his first year, but he's had ONE good performance, out of eleven. There are other drivers in the field who can get more out of the car more often and are more deserving of his seat. I've seen nothing from him in F1 that would suggest he's anything more than an also-ran.
Now that i think about it, Glock would make a great Williams driver. He didn't complain when he was given a crap car, he just kept his head down and pushed it as hard as he dared, that's the kind of driver that goes down well in Frank's team!
The trouble with bringing new drivers in, is often it's at the expense of decent drivers (as we've seen this year), something needs to be done about the testing restriction. Because there's no way of knowing whether a new guy's going to shine or choke without sacrificing valuable test-days which can harm the development of the new car.
I'm not saying, don't let the new guys in. But it would be better for F1 in general if they could begin their career's as test drivers and get some track time to see if they're 'worthy'.
As it stands now you may as well flip a coin to find out if your new young pilot is going to be any good, because it doesn't always correllate with the drivers abilities in lower formulae.
More ramblings to follow later...
Er.. i meant one out of twelve for Nico. *blush*
How well will Kobayashi be able to communicate? Obviously he has to know enough to be able to communicate universally with his team (unless they all talk in Swiss), but does he know enough (and is he willing) to pass on information to a younger driver who might have a bigger future?
I'd say Sauber have got their young charger already in Kamui and should pair him up with someone more sensible; De la Rosa could yet keep his seat because of this. True the Spaniard doesn't have the outright pace of Kobayashi, but he's more of a wise head and hasn't been too far off the standard set by the Japanese driver.
One can look at Hulkenburg this year and argue that a dominant GP2 driver doesn't necessarily make a fantastic F1 driver - which goes back to my previous points. Maldonado would be a risk for any of the teams without more extensive testing. I do believe the champion of GP2 SHOULD be given a season in F1, but without dedicated test drivers then the least damaging option (to both the driver and the teams) are Friday/Third drivers or learning together with one of the new teams.
Sauber's a difficult one because it's much harder to predict where they will be in terms of pace next year, i suspect they will go backwards due to lack of funds and will field a car which is more a package of updates to the current one, than something completely new.
In which case it won't matter too much what they do, though i'd probably be inclined to keep the current line-up unless Pedro forgets how to drive for the remaining races this year.
Footnote: Heidfeld deserves a better car which is why i haven't mentioned him here.
I'm not confident of Hispania being around next season... in fact i'm pretty sure they won't be. And even if they do appear it will be with drivers who have lots of financial backing. And that will not necessarily be Yamamoto, though he has done a commendable job thus far in not having thrown it off the road in either of his events and, in Hungary at least, getting to within 2 tenths of his team mate's laptimes.
I really have no opinion of who should be there, because they can't afford to have talent drivers.
I think you're writing Hulkenberg off a little too quickly, Dave. I'd hold out until the end of the season.
Well you can look forward to pointing and saying "Ha ha, you were wrong" to me if he does improve dramatically!
I would do no such thing, Dave. We'll just wait and see. But I would still bet on Hulkenberg having a far longer and more successful F1 career than any of the other rookies who've joined F1 this year. We'll revisit this discussion in a decade.
Mclaren- Button, Hamilton
Ferrari- Alonso, Massa
Red Bull- Vettel, Webber
Mercedes- Rosberg, Sutil
Renault- Kubica, Raikkonen
Williams- Barrichello, Hulkenburg
Force India- Di Riesta, Chandhok
Sauber- Kobayashi, Maldonado
Toro rosso- Buemi, Alguersuari
Lotus- Kovalainen, Trulli
Virgin- Glock, D'Ambrosio
HTR- Two of the following: Senna, Yamamoto, Perez, Petrov, Klien.
Schumacher will retire, Heidfeld will race for sauber in the last 5 races but will be dropped for next year.