We’re all very chuffed here at the Sett, chuffed because of the sheer delight the Badger’s Pie of Possibility is giving to our readers and followers on Twitter – so due to this, there has been plenty of action in the kitchen ahead of the Turkish grand prix to give you not one, but two brand new Pies of Possibility.

First up, the question everyone is pondering – who’s got the pace to stop yet another BrawnGP victory?  Anyone betting against Jenson Button making it 6 wins from 7 races would be a brave soul, but with Massa wanting to maintain his Turkish winning streak, BMW having a car with new bits on it and an already fast Red Bull and Toyota as well as Fernando single-handedly lifting the spirits of Renault who have a new front wing, it seems that all the teams are more determined than ever to take the fight to Rubens and Jenson and avoid another absolute stuffing…in Turkey.

You can read Badger’s complete form-guide here to learn more about each of the teams’ progress, but if you don’t have time for that and need a quick fix, cast your eyes on the latest Pie of Possibility…


So Ferrari and Red Bull are first in line to contend with the Brawns, more than double the likelihood of Williams, Renault and Toro Rosso.  Toyota will be pleased with their rating being as high as 15%, they just have to hope that their claims are not over-optimistic.  Due their incredibly poor showings so far, both BMW and McLaren and languishing far behind with a likelihood rating of 5%, only just a bit more chance than Force India with 3%.  Of course, F1 being F1, as Murray Walker put it “anything can happen and it usually does” so there’s the mandatory “Something Else” but with a likelihood of only 2%.  For more on how these likelihoods were assigned, read the form-guide “So who’s going to get their Turkish delight”

Looking at the opposite end of the spectrum, we have to ask the question – who’s not going to finish in Turkey?  This, believe it or not involves some pretty cunning calculations, looking back over the previous races of 2009, and in particular the drivers that have failed to finish the odd race.  All the previous pies have been 100% accurate, however, despite this mighty statistic we have found that some folk are not wholly convinced by the data upon which these pies are based on.  In light of this, the pie of possibility for who’s not going to finish was concocted using vast amounts of technical data sourced from FORIX – the official F1 database.  Without further ado, here’s the latest Pie of Possibility (click to enlarge it and read on below to learn more about how it was calculated…)


…and so how were these likelihoods calculated? By using the spreadsheet below – a “spin” (which can be a collision or just a mistake) is awarded 3 points and a retirement (mechanical failure) is awarded 1 point. The numbers are then multiplied by 10 to make them more impressive. The drivers with the higher score are more likely to not finish a race.  To level the numbers out, each drivers’ 2009 performance needs to be taken into account. For this we looked at the number of points each has scored so far and subtracted this from their spin and retirement score.  Their final score was calculated as a percentage of the total scores for all.  See for yourself below (click to enlarge)


Pretty clever stuff we’re sure you’ll agree.  Piquet’s low percentage is a shock result and poor Kovalainen – he’s going to have to do a lot to make up for his crashes in the opening races.  The other drivers don’t feature in the second pie because they are yet to not finish a race and so will have a chance of 0%.

So there you have it – that’s your fill of Badger’s Pies of Possibility for the time being, we hope you’ve enjoyed them and the Badger would love to know if you agree or not…